The Worst Year in History to Be Alive
- 11 February 2023
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- 9 Min Read
THE WORST YEAR: THE VOLCANIC WINTER OF 536
The year 536 AD marked the beginning of the most severe and prolonged episode of climatic cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the last two millennia, an event often called the “volcanic winter.” This catastrophic period, likely caused by volcanic eruptions, set in motion a series of environmental and societal crises, leading scholars to consider it one of history’s darkest times, even dubbed the worst year by some.
Causes of the Volcanic Winter
The volcanic winter likely began with a massive eruption in early 536 AD (or possibly late 535), spilling enormous amounts of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. These particles reflected sunlight away from Earth, drastically reducing the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface and causing temperatures to plummet. While debate remains about the precise location of this eruption—possible sources include Iceland, North America, or the tropics—its effects were recorded primarily by authors in Constantinople, then the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire. The cooling lasted several years, and further volcanic activity around 539–540 AD reinforced these harsh conditions. Evidence suggests another eruption in 547 AD, which extended the cooling period and resulted in what we now refer to as the “Late Antique Little Ice Age” (536-560 AD).
Environmental Impact and Temperature Decline
The cooling effects were evident as early as March 536 in Constantinople, where skies darkened, and temperatures dropped sharply. Throughout Europe, summer temperatures in 536 fell by as much as 2.5°C (4.5°F) below average, while the eruption in 539-540 drove temperatures even lower, by approximately 2.7°C (4.9°F). This dramatic decline disrupted seasonal patterns, leading to uncharacteristically harsh winters, cold summers, and widespread environmental distress.
Consequences of the Volcanic Winter
The impact of the volcanic winter was devastating. Crop failures became widespread, leading to severe famine and economic hardship. This period of scarcity, compounded by the outbreak of the Plague of Justinian, led to millions of deaths across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Medieval scholar Michael McCormick has described 536 AD as “the worst year to be alive”, as it initiated an era of unprecedented hardship that would reverberate through history. The Late Antique Little Ice Age profoundly influenced populations and economies, contributing to the decline of empires and the onset of one of the most challenging periods of human existence.
Increasing pressure from invading barbarians from outside Roman culture also played a significant role in the collapse. Many of these immediate factors were driven by climatic changes and endemic and epidemic diseases. The causes of the collapse are major topics in ancient world historiography, extensively analysed by historians like Edward Gibbon in his seminal work, The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, and they inform much of the contemporary discourse on state failure.
CONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTS OF THE CLIMATE ANOMALIES
Procopius’ Report
In AD 536, the Roman historian Procopius recorded in his report on the wars with the Vandals that the most dreadful portent took place. The sun gave forth its light without brightness, appearing like the sun in an eclipse, with the beams it shed not being clear.
Cassiodorus’ Description
In 538, the Roman statesman Cassiodorus described the following to one of his subordinates in a letter:
The sun’s rays were weak, appearing a bluish colour.
At noon, no shadows from people were visible on the ground.
The heat from the sun was feeble.
The moon was empty of splendour, even when full.
A winter without storms, a spring without mildness, and a summer without heat.
Prolonged frost and unseasonable drought.
The seasons seemed to be all jumbled up together.
The sky was described as blended with alien elements, stretched like a hide across the sky, and prevented the true colours of the sun and moon from being seen.
Frosts during harvest make apples harden and grapes sour.
The need to use stored food to last through the situation.
Letters 26 and 27 discussed plans to relieve a widespread famine.
Michael the Syrian’s Report
Michael the Syrian, a patriarch of the Syriac Orthodox Church, reported that during 536-537, the sun shone feebly for a year and a half.
Irish Annals
The Gaelic Irish Annals recorded the following:
A failure of bread in AD 536 (Annals of Ulster)
A failure of bread from AD 536-539 (Annals of Inisfallen)
The Battle of Camlann, in which Arthur and Medraut fell, and there was great mortality in Britain and Ireland (Annales Cambriae)
Independent Contemporary Sources
Further phenomena were reported by independent contemporary sources:
Low temperatures, even snow during the summer (snow reportedly fell in August in China, causing the harvest to be delayed)
Widespread crop failures
A dense, dry fog in the Middle East, China, and Europe
Drought in Peru, affecting the Moche culture
THE CAUSES OF AD 536 CLIMATIC CHANGES
The climate crisis of 536 AD, considered one of history’s most severe and abrupt cooling events, launched the “Late Antique Little Ice Age.” This phenomenon led to widespread crop failures, famine, and societal upheaval, as historical accounts describe dimmed sunlight and “years without summer.” While multiple theories have emerged over the years, these explanations mainly revolve around volcanic eruptions, extraterrestrial impacts, and even cumulative volcanic activities.
Theory One – Volcanic Eruptions
The leading theory centres on large-scale volcanic eruptions. A 2008 study supported this idea through ice core samples from Greenland and Antarctica, which revealed sulfate deposits corresponding to the mid-6th century. Such deposits, indicative of volcanic sulfur release, suggest at least one significant volcanic event, possibly followed by a second eruption around 539–540. This sequence would have created prolonged sunlight blockage, chilling the Northern Hemisphere for years. Harvard researchers proposed Iceland as a possible source in 2018, while other hypotheses point to North America. Regardless, the volcanic explanation remains compelling, given the observed environmental disruptions and widespread socio-economic consequences.
Theory Two: Extraterrestrial Impacts
Another hypothesis speculates that a meteorite or comet impact may have driven the climatic anomaly of 536 AD. Proponents cite historical reports of “mystery clouds” and rapid temperature drops, typically associated with extraterrestrial events. However, a pivotal 2008 discovery of volcanic sulfur in ice cores cast doubt on this theory, redirecting focus toward terrestrial volcanic activity as a more likely culprit. While possible, this theory lacks sufficient geological evidence, leaving volcanic activity as the primary explanation for the cooling.
Theory Three: Other Volcanoes (Rabaul, Krakatoa, and Tierra Blanca Joven)
Alternative theories point to specific volcanic sources like Rabaul in Papua New Guinea, Krakatoa in Indonesia, and Tierra Blanca Joven in El Salvador. Each eruption is argued to have contributed to or caused the climatic shifts of 536 AD by ejecting ash and sulfur into the atmosphere. While theories about Rabaul and Krakatoa align with historical observations and some geologic evidence, neither can be definitively linked to the 536 event. The Tierra Blanca Joven eruption was also proposed in 2010 but similarly lacks conclusive evidence.
Theory Four: Multiple Eruptions
A comprehensive view posits that multiple volcanic eruptions between 535 and 540 AD collectively fueled the prolonged cooling. Ice core and tree ring analyses suggest that sequential eruptions, rather than a single event, may have caused the extended climatic disruption. This theory explains the “Late Antique Little Ice Age” more cohesively, showing how overlapping volcanic events created an enduring “volcanic winter,” which compounded food shortages, destabilised societies, and contributed to geopolitical changes.
Conclusion
Despite numerous hypotheses, the precise cause of the 536 AD climate anomaly remains inconclusive. While volcanic eruptions are the most widely accepted explanation, further research is needed to determine whether a single, significant event or multiple eruptions over several years led to the devastating climatic shift.
LEGENDS AND HISTORICAL EVENTS
Gold Deposits by Scandinavian Elites
Historians suggest that the catastrophic climatic downturn of 536 AD, followed by widespread famine, may have prompted Scandinavian elites to deposit significant hoards of gold as offerings. At the end of the Migration Period, this practice likely aimed to appease the gods and restore sunlight. Some scholars believe that Norse myths, such as the Fimbulwinter—a prophesied harsh winter preceding the end of the world—and Ragnarök, may have roots in cultural memories of this dark period.
David Keys’ Theory
In Catastrophe: An Investigation into the Origins of the Modern World, David Keys theorises that the 536 AD climate event and its resulting environmental impacts influenced a range of pivotal historical events. He connects the severe cooling with the onset of the Plague of Justinian, the decline of the Avar Empire, migrations of Mongol tribes, the collapse of the Sassanid Empire, the fall of the Gupta Empire, the emergence of Islam, the spread of Turkic tribes, and the downfall of Teotihuacán in Mesoamerica. Keys’ book inspired a documentary produced in 2000 by 3BM Television, which aired in the US as part of PBS’s Secrets of the Dead series. Despite its popularity, some of Keys’ and Wohletz’s interpretations are contested. British archaeologist Ken Dark criticised the book, arguing that much of its evidence is speculative or inaccurate.
Andrew Breeze’s Theory on King Arthur
Philologist Andrew Breeze offers a unique perspective, positing that the events surrounding King Arthur, including the Battle of Camlann, are historically grounded and occurred in 537 AD as a direct consequence of the widespread famine resulting from the previous year’s climate anomaly. Breeze’s work suggests that elements of Arthurian legend may indeed reflect real events shaped by this period of extreme environmental hardship.
RECOMENDED BOOKS
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SOURCES
Keys, D. (1999). Catastrophe: An investigation into the origins of the modern world. Ballantine Books.
Wikipedia Contributors. (2023, February 7). Volcanic winter of 536. Wikipedia; Wikimedia Foundation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter_of_536
Why 536 was “the worst year to be alive.” (2021). Science.org. https://www.science.org/content/article/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive
Ngamla, M. (2020, December 16). Why the “Year 536 A.D” was the Worst Year To Be Alive. Medium; The Collector. https://medium.com/the-collector/year-536-a-d-the-worst-year-to-be-alive-5e561f045277
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Luciano Anastasi
Luciano is the founder of the MedievalHistory platform and the LinkedIn History Enthusiasts Group, where he is dedicated to curating and sharing high-quality medieval history content. His goal is to engage scholars, teachers, students, and enthusiasts by fostering insightful discussions and promoting scholarly resources on topics from medieval warfare and religion to societal transformations and daily life in the Middle Ages.
Luciano is also an active book reviewer, focusing on academic publications related to medieval history. He recently collaborated with Yale University Press to review forthcoming medieval history titles, aiming to deepen educators' and researchers' understanding of the period. Alongside his history endeavors, he has over 40 years of experience in IT leadership roles across various industries, including the public sector, banking, insurance, airlines and consulting, and has contributed to United Nations projects.
With a Master of Arts in Business Process Management, Luciano combines his expertise in IT strategy and governance with his passion for medieval history. He leverages technology to bridge the academic community and the wider public, making historical scholarship more accessible through engaging online content.
